You can’t forecast the future. But you can prepare for it.
Our comprehensive five-year seafood work programme is demonstration of this. At its core is the need to better understand the impacts climate change will have on our economically critical seafood sector – and importantly, the steps that need to be taken now to address them.
The seed for this work was sown in 2020 when The Circle led development of marine scenarios. Three years later, we again worked with sector leaders to develop a Seafood Sector Adaptation Strategy including suggested climate adaptation pathways for hoki, salmon and snapper.
In 2025, The Circle convened a cross-sector working group comprising industry leaders to update the marine climate scenarios. Among them were leaders from Moana New Zealand, New Zealand King Salmon, Sanford, Sealord, Te Ohu Kaimoana and Ngāi Tahu Holdings, with an advisory group of representatives from Aquaculture New Zealand, the Cawthron Institute, MPI, NIWA and other independent experts providing support.
The resulting scenarios present a range of plausible futures, enabling the sector to test decisions, challenge assumptions, and move beyond business-as-usual thinking.
Sealord Chief Executive Doug Paulin says the work continues to shape decisions today. “The Aotearoa Circle’s Climate Scenarios outlining potential changes in deepwater conditions for the seafood industry, particularly in relation to the moana and rising sea temperatures, have helped us identify the key issues Sealord needs to focus on. Without this work, we would have needed to invest significant resources to commission research that may not have been as robust, potentially leading to decisions based on less accurate data.”
Proudly, our work with our Partners and other sector leaders led to the development and launch of a world-first set of seafood climate scenarios in 2025 that integrated climate, nature, and te ao Māori perspectives. As Project Lead, and Partner at KPMG New Zealand, Alec Tang says, our climate challenges can feel dark and depressing but adding nature and Māori worldviews reveals opportunities.
“The work provides strategic insights and practical tools to support adaptation and resilience - not only for seafood, but for any industry facing interconnected environmental and cultural risks.”
Our seafood sector work programme is making a splash in other sectors. As Esther Evening, Senior Sustainability Advisor at Mercury notes, “Conversations with The Circle and KPMG on their Seafood Integrated Scenarios report, prompted thinking within Mercury about how Te Ao Māori perspectives could be woven through our own scenario development and risk and opportunity identification.”
Preparing for an uncertain future is prudent risk management and this collaborative work programme demonstrates the opportunities seafood, and other critical sectors have to strengthen resilience and adaptation, unlock value and strengthen both our economy and natural environment when we take a forward, leadership view.
