The Aotearoa Circle recently released its first Impact Report, highlighting what has been achieved with our Partners since 2019 and the growing momentum behind strengthening Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate, nature and economic resilience. This week we’re spotlighting one of the report’s impact case studies, featuring Leading Partner the Ministry for the Environment and their contribution to our Future Fit Shipping workstream.
Shipping is the backbone of Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy. Almost all our trade moves by sea – 99.7% by volume and 81% by value – making the decarbonisation of shipping both a climate imperative and an economic one. With exports exceeding $74 billion and imports over $80 billion in the year to March 2025, maintaining competitive, low-carbon access to global markets is critical to our future prosperity.
Recognising the scale of this challenge, The Aotearoa Circle launched the Future Fit Shipping workstream to explore how New Zealand can decarbonise its maritime sector while remaining a resilient trading nation.
The Ministry for the Environment (MfE) is a foundational Partner of The Aotearoa Circle, contributing deeply to our work since our inception. The team at MfE have played a pivotal role in multiple Circle workstreams, reports, and fora, combining government expertise with collaboration to create actionable insights that support New Zealand’s environmental and economic resilience. David Ross, Principal Advisor | Kaitohutohu Mātāmua, International & Strategic Partnerships at MfE, cites a recent example in the form of our Future Fit Shipping Report, which was delivered by Deloitte New Zealand for The Circle in May 2025.
MfE was a key contributor alongside other valued Circle Partners and stakeholders, including private and public entities in Australia. Collectively they helped shape a report that underscores the economic importance of green shipping for New Zealand’s export growth. It also highlights opportunities for greater public-private collaboration and identifies regulatory barriers requiring coordination across several government portfolios. It also showcases that addressing the risks and opportunities that decarbonisation presents spans multiple agencies.
David says while the government engages in international negotiations on emissions, the Circle’s process for developing reports such as Future Fit Shipping has involved practical coordination among relevant New Zealand and Australian government agencies, including MfE.
“The report provides government with recommendations and practical guidance to help determine next steps for maritime decarbonisation. And this work is important. New Zealand’s Going for Growth framework aims to double the value of exports by 2034. With 99.7% of trading volume and 81% of trade value tied to the maritime industry, export growth relies on resilient shipping routes and the availability of low-emissions fuels.”
The report’s analysis, based on Deloitte modelling, shows that delayed decarbonisation could cost New Zealand $17.5–$94.1 billion in GDP by 2050 due to reduced supply chain resilience and decreased competitiveness in international markets. This scenario assumes that the International Maritime Organization introduces a greenhouse gas levy and that global regulatory and consumer shifts reduce New Zealand exports by 5–15% by 2050 if no action is taken.
Read the Future Fit Shipping report here
